ES All time highs woohoo

So wtf is next?

Let's take a look at where we came from and try to put some context on the situation. The following charts are profiles only (Thanks FT71). They sometimes clear the forest of trees and give one an easier view. All charts are RTH.

As one can see the ES has been trading in a range. A range that has had a couple of OMFG moments (at least for me it has) but a range none the less. The last few days have been one time framing up leading to a small break out. On Friday's push down a test of Thursday's single prints (Key LVN) led to a rejection and new highs. VPOC also trending up each day. If you were watching twitter you probably winced for the bears posting their 1000 lot $SPY long put trades...

VPOC of this range is 2095.50 and likely to be the main attractor if price pushes down back into consolidation and a great target if it does. I have NO IDEA if this will happen, however, if it does and the bulls don't step up to the plate then price is far more likely to continue auctioning down looking for buyers, which one would expect towards the lower end of the range.

Moving into a smaller time frame, let's look at some intraday charts for possible test areas

and a slightly more zoomed out view to show the trend line

Typically I would look for a test of that trend line, and knowing the ES a push through. Essentially 2103 to 2099 zone. Rejecting this area imo we are more likely to make new highs sooner rather than later. If price pushes through this area then 2095.50 MCVPOC is very likely and a decent target for some responsive action. Note the LVN at 2092 right below. Often where an auction will fail to continue and offers good risk reward if one has a bullish stance.

Below this level I'd be looking to see if the 2082 LVN gets tested, obviously there are areas in between that may reject it's just my opinion is that this is the next key LVN offering better risk/reward. News and price action rule though so...

If price does gain momentum to the downside the next critical area for bulls to defend is likely to be 2056.75 (visible in profile only chart). A key LVN and close enough to the bottom of the consolidation zone for bulls to really step up and defend. Given how the volatility has increased this year I don't think it would take too long to get there if this plays out.

So, some ideas on where to go long/short jotted down, however, what about the upside targets. I have none! Joke... 2140 is my initial target to the upside before I'd expect decent responsive action by sellers. This doesn't mean to say they won't step in before hand and ruin your day trade but overall I think this is the likely target (according other tweeps too) btw tweep = twitter peeps... Keep in mind the ES has a normal daily range of 8 - 16 points (1std deviation), I use those numbers as ideas on where to get out/look at getting out.

Hopefully some of this gels with your own hypothesis and aids in creating levels to trade. Watch your risk! When I don't it hurts.

I don't know what day it is 2-11-2015

Yep really I don't but I think it might be Tuesday.


8:30am PDT Grexit news. Likely a market mover at least I hope so.

Yesterday was interesting. Price pushed much urther into prior day's range than I expected thus causing much stops to be triggered (2). Managed a scale on one trade but the other was a full stop out. I did finally get my long and managed a decent trade once price reversed. Obviously I still need to work on my patience some... Like maybe wait for a reversal candle or something yo.


Overnight did fuck all, OAIR probably going to be choppy. Probably best to wait a bit/small scalps until something breaks...

Hypo 1: Expecting a test of 2055 zone and (probably) slightly below key is holding it to initiate a long and look for new highs over yesterday. Scale at OVN hi area/yesterdays VPOC.

Hypo 2: Choppy in range in balance, just not going to do anything in this.

Hypo 3: Drop back into prior balance below 2055ish. Probably choppy and will be watching for break lower and trade that. Not really expecting this to happen.

Trickster Tuesday 2-10-2015

Not much time so right into hypos

Feeling rather tired today so will be waiting for something obvious to happen...

I'm not really looking for a balanced day. Need to see the LVN tested and likely to initiate a trade based on that. Ideally test the overnight LVN and then reverse to the upside which is similar but opposite to yesterday's hypo.

If the LVN doesn't hold I'll be shorting with an initial target of 2045 but looking for price to power down to fresh lows from yesterday.

Wankle Wednesday 2-4-2015

ISM just after the open.

Yesterday followed the familiar test one way rip the other way. Tested into the single prints which was hypo 1. I think any bearish bias needs to be nullified at this point. Yesterday's profile left a weak high as did the over night session. I think these highs will be tested this coming session if not very soon.

Current outlook is to open in range in balance (OAIR).

In a rush so my main hypo for today is a test down, rejection and another push higher above the weak high from yesterday. Below 2022 I am likely wrong on this trade and will look for a short into yesterday's single prints near the lows.

I think it's Tuesday 2-3-2015

Yesterday. Little planning but bearish bias. Worked really well in the morning then raped me in the afternoon. Fun fun fun.., Don't over trade and don't go from green p&l to red... In fact, I feel disgusted with myself for allowing this to happen. Not the right path to consistency.

Crude looks to be making a short lived come back. I do not believe it's the end of selling but this could be a decent bounce for the next week.


A fairly key CLVN was rejected yesterday at the 1973 zone where buyers stepped right up and screwed all the shorts. IMO action suggests not to be too bearish (but remain cautious). Price is back in balance and overnight made it's way to a key MCVPOC/MCHVN/CHVN. A strong magnet.

I think the 2060 level will now come into play and that is my primary hypothesis for the next few days assuming price remains in this balance zone and rejects a test down.

It looks like we will open out of range (OAOR). I'm looking for a gap close and push into yesterday's profile. Would like to see a test and rejection of the single prints where I will be looking for a decent move towards and possibly breaking the over night highs. If the single prints don't hold then yesterday's VPOC and below are targets but will be looking for more of a balanced day. Given the volatility lately... who knows.

I will also be looking for OD/driving behaviour but not expecting this initially.

Over night high will be fairly key today. It's an HVN and a possible location for sellers to step in.


Not really feeling it due to yesterday but that can often change quickly. Light and tight today.

Frisky Friday Draghi Aftermath 1-23-2015

3am PST. I must have been a vampire in a prior life.

E.QE obviously had an effect on US markets. Are things as bullish underneath as they are on the surface? Time will tell. Obviously there is a short term bullish bias, however, last year there were some sharp sell offs after making new highs. Yesterday's move threw price into the upper distribution on the local MCOMP and MCVPOC on the larger time frame MCOMP.

This is now likely to go back towards the highs and retest the prior balance and weak high. Overnight has had little action and maintains a balanced profile. It appears as though these higher prices are accepted and further confirms a more likely test upwards (doesn't mean it won't test down a little beforehand).

Seeing a bunch of posts about oil being up due to King Abdullah's demise, are they forgetting it was down 5% just prior? Anyway...

A couple of ideas for today, assuming in range in value opening based on current ON profile/price.

Hypo 1: Choppy for a short while leading to a test lower to 2048 VPOC with responsive buyers stepping in and pushing price for a test to the next MCOMP HVN at 2079.50 and depending on the commitment a push through the LVN/CLVN to 2086.75. There is a LVN at 2075ish that I'll be keeping an eye on and also 2068 is an area I want to see taken out quickly.

hypo 2: A test lower where 2048 doesn't hold. If this happens I might not immediately jump to a big sell off day but it makes sense to keep that in mind. 2039 -> 2033.25 -> 2028.75 will be my targets. If driving behaviour shows up (OTF) then it will lead me to more of a power sell off day.

Hypo 3 If the market opens in range and value then we may have some chop. A test down and up but generally maintaining a balanced profile. I'll be looking for 2048 and 2068 for the tests/extremes. Yes this is a reasonably large range and one not typical of a balanced day but volatility is up so... Ideally want to take responsive trades and scalps if I spot this.

Hypo 4: Market sells off like it has been lately. I'm thinking more of an OD/OTD open and some definite commitment such as we have seen lately on those days. Not really expecting this but at the same time I am not particularly bullish considering macro news. There are plenty of key levels to target if this plays out and I think I will try to hold and take larger scale outs.

Trader's Creed

This is my plan. There are many like it, but this one is mine.

My plan is my best friend. It is my life. I must master it as I must master my life.

My plan, without me, is useless. Without my plan, I am useless. I must fire my plan true. I must shoot straighter than my enemy who is trying to kill me. I must shoot him before he shoots me. I will...

My plan and I know that what counts in war is not the rounds we fire, the noise of our burst, nor the smoke we make. We know that it is the hits that count. We will hit...

My plan is human, even as I, because it is my life. Thus, I will learn it as a brother. I will learn its weaknesses, its strength, its parts, its accessories, its sights and its barrel. I will keep my plan clean and ready, even as I am clean and ready. We will become part of each other. We will...

Before God, I swear this creed. My plan and I are the defenders of my trading account. We are the masters of our enemy. We are the saviors of my life.

So be it, until victory is Mine and there is no enemy, but peace!

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