E.QE obviously had an effect on US markets. Are things as bullish underneath as they are on the surface? Time will tell. Obviously there is a short term bullish bias, however, last year there were some sharp sell offs after making new highs. Yesterday's move threw price into the upper distribution on the local MCOMP and MCVPOC on the larger time frame MCOMP.
This is now likely to go back towards the highs and retest the prior balance and weak high. Overnight has had little action and maintains a balanced profile. It appears as though these higher prices are accepted and further confirms a more likely test upwards (doesn't mean it won't test down a little beforehand).
Seeing a bunch of posts about oil being up due to King Abdullah's demise, are they forgetting it was down 5% just prior? Anyway...
A couple of ideas for today, assuming in range in value opening based on current ON profile/price.
Hypo 1: Choppy for a short while leading to a test lower to 2048 VPOC with responsive buyers stepping in and pushing price for a test to the next MCOMP HVN at 2079.50 and depending on the commitment a push through the LVN/CLVN to 2086.75. There is a LVN at 2075ish that I'll be keeping an eye on and also 2068 is an area I want to see taken out quickly.
hypo 2: A test lower where 2048 doesn't hold. If this happens I might not immediately jump to a big sell off day but it makes sense to keep that in mind. 2039 -> 2033.25 -> 2028.75 will be my targets. If driving behaviour shows up (OTF) then it will lead me to more of a power sell off day.
Hypo 3 If the market opens in range and value then we may have some chop. A test down and up but generally maintaining a balanced profile. I'll be looking for 2048 and 2068 for the tests/extremes. Yes this is a reasonably large range and one not typical of a balanced day but volatility is up so... Ideally want to take responsive trades and scalps if I spot this.
Hypo 4: Market sells off like it has been lately. I'm thinking more of an OD/OTD open and some definite commitment such as we have seen lately on those days. Not really expecting this but at the same time I am not particularly bullish considering macro news. There are plenty of key levels to target if this plays out and I think I will try to hold and take larger scale outs.
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