Frisky Friday Draghi Aftermath 1-23-2015

3am PST. I must have been a vampire in a prior life.

E.QE obviously had an effect on US markets. Are things as bullish underneath as they are on the surface? Time will tell. Obviously there is a short term bullish bias, however, last year there were some sharp sell offs after making new highs. Yesterday's move threw price into the upper distribution on the local MCOMP and MCVPOC on the larger time frame MCOMP.

This is now likely to go back towards the highs and retest the prior balance and weak high. Overnight has had little action and maintains a balanced profile. It appears as though these higher prices are accepted and further confirms a more likely test upwards (doesn't mean it won't test down a little beforehand).

Seeing a bunch of posts about oil being up due to King Abdullah's demise, are they forgetting it was down 5% just prior? Anyway...

A couple of ideas for today, assuming in range in value opening based on current ON profile/price.

Hypo 1: Choppy for a short while leading to a test lower to 2048 VPOC with responsive buyers stepping in and pushing price for a test to the next MCOMP HVN at 2079.50 and depending on the commitment a push through the LVN/CLVN to 2086.75. There is a LVN at 2075ish that I'll be keeping an eye on and also 2068 is an area I want to see taken out quickly.

hypo 2: A test lower where 2048 doesn't hold. If this happens I might not immediately jump to a big sell off day but it makes sense to keep that in mind. 2039 -> 2033.25 -> 2028.75 will be my targets. If driving behaviour shows up (OTF) then it will lead me to more of a power sell off day.

Hypo 3 If the market opens in range and value then we may have some chop. A test down and up but generally maintaining a balanced profile. I'll be looking for 2048 and 2068 for the tests/extremes. Yes this is a reasonably large range and one not typical of a balanced day but volatility is up so... Ideally want to take responsive trades and scalps if I spot this.

Hypo 4: Market sells off like it has been lately. I'm thinking more of an OD/OTD open and some definite commitment such as we have seen lately on those days. Not really expecting this but at the same time I am not particularly bullish considering macro news. There are plenty of key levels to target if this plays out and I think I will try to hold and take larger scale outs.

Trader's Creed

This is my plan. There are many like it, but this one is mine.

My plan is my best friend. It is my life. I must master it as I must master my life.

My plan, without me, is useless. Without my plan, I am useless. I must fire my plan true. I must shoot straighter than my enemy who is trying to kill me. I must shoot him before he shoots me. I will...

My plan and I know that what counts in war is not the rounds we fire, the noise of our burst, nor the smoke we make. We know that it is the hits that count. We will hit...

My plan is human, even as I, because it is my life. Thus, I will learn it as a brother. I will learn its weaknesses, its strength, its parts, its accessories, its sights and its barrel. I will keep my plan clean and ready, even as I am clean and ready. We will become part of each other. We will...

Before God, I swear this creed. My plan and I are the defenders of my trading account. We are the masters of our enemy. We are the saviors of my life.

So be it, until victory is Mine and there is no enemy, but peace!

Adapted from Rifleman's Creed

MLK Tuesday

This week is probably going to be fooking volatile. ECB shit going on. Crude shenanigans. Market pushing up strongly overnight etc. It's a fairly busy week for news events.

Overnight had a decent OD pushing price up to the 2023 level (CLVN and MCHVN)

2029.50 is a big level for bulls to get through (MCLVN and CHVN) I think if this level is breached then price is more likely to head towards 2049 (MCHVN) and 2060 (MCVPOC). The 2029 zone is the upper/lower distribution line on the current profile. I'll be looking for driving behaviour on breach.

So, opening appears to be OAOR/OOR, more likely to expect responsive sellers to close the gap and attempt to push price back into value (1995 MMCVPOC (MiniMicro)) (although this VPOC is the HVN for the lower distribution.)

So really it seems quite easy. Upper or lower distribution? Hehe-easy...

Some hypos for today.

1. Responsive sellers step in at the open and drop price for a gap close. I'll be looking at a large zone for buyers to step back in. From 2019 to 2013. I just see too many reasons for each level so probably best to just look at the whole zone and see how it trades if entered. The less price pushes down into yesterday's profile the ore confidence I'll have in taking a long which is the trade I'm looking for. I'll be targeting a break of the 2029 level and a push towards that MCHVN zone. If driving behaviour then campaigning will happen.
2. Lethargic open with no real direction. With the news coming up market could sit in balance waiting. Will be doing 1,2,3 point scalps if this is the case and looking to see where the extremes get set. 2029 being the upper but the lower could be anywhere in the 2019/2013 range (2014.75 being yesterday's VPOC). A break of the range likely to see a strong drive.
3. Initiative and responsive sellers step in. Will be looking for OTD/OD for this. 1994 initial target but would expect a break lower and possibly new lows on the month. If this looks like it's happening I will campaign like a mofo around core short. 

My levels have been fairly decent as of late and the market has been nice and volatile. I'll be waiting to see what happens before taking an major directional trade but likely to scalp 1,2,3 points here and there in the meantime.

TFI Friday 1-16-2015

Interesting article on bonds and negative rates.

$BP imo an undervalued company had sort of good news.

Overnight news? didn't check a damn thing, just glossed over and watching $TWTR stream! Saying that I think there are Fed speakers today so check the schedule.

Yesterday was pretty decent. Strong selling yet again but definitely some push back by buyers. I took a lot of trades with reasonable win rate but at least 10 were dumb, must take a good look at these and find a way to reduce them, initial thoughts are just taking that small step back and seeing the bigger picture. Trading short term 3 handle scalps (really a scalp is smaller than this but whatever) sucks one into the game and creates tunnel vision. My rules need some tweaking.

Overnight trade completed what I thought would happen during RTH. A push down to 1980 HVN and CLVN just beyond with VPOC sitting at an older area of balance (and old VPOC).

This volatility is nice in some aspects. I thought I was just getting better but a fellow trader friend pointed out that the market is easier to read when it's like this. Damn him!

Anyway, enough bullshit to today's plan and chart pr0n.

The monthly is imo right at or very close to a reflection point. The issue with looking for a reversal is that value has been found lower, and whilst this theme carries on any longs should be considered short term and NOT a trade to add/play with to make work. Why would anyone take a long under these circumstances? Well, when the market bounces in this type of scenario it can be violent and very profitable in a short amount of time (I have a long hypo today)

The MC shows value as being accepted below that large HVN at the bottom of the profile

IMO this is a bearish scenario that is more likely to lead to lower prices in the coming weeks. Given the world's state of affairs the fundamentals seem to go along with the technicals.

Just in: Seeing a lot of news about $FXCM and how fucked they are. MF Global 2.0. Eurozone deflationary.

With the market gaping down, according to auction theory we expect responsive buyers (algos) to step in and bring price back to value of yesterday at 1992ish and possibly beyond towards 2000/2010. If price fails to get back into yesterday's range and hold then I expect sellers to step back in and continue this weeks theme.

I am looking for longs on the open with MAJOR risk control and no excessive attempts if the first few fail. Depending on what happens if price gets back to yesterday's value I will either wait patiently for price to explore and probably fade it or go walk the dog and do coding for the rest of the day.

If price shows failure to get back into value I will be stalking a short (let's face it, I'm going to be stalking shorts the entire time but...) and for price to explore down to 1965 LVN and below to 1950ish. 1965 imo being a possible reversal area so watching out for that too.

Swiss Cheese Thursday 1-15-2015

Swiss Franc boom.
Market Boom.

Yesterday was great, until I fished for the bottom and got chop suey. I know not to do it but meh wtf. Emotions are critical. Doing the right thing is critical and the right thing is often to stfu and wait patiently.

Anyways...

Volatile overnight due to Swiss Franc shenanigans and now we're green and gaping open after a 40 handle drop from overnight highs.
In a rush so some charts and numbers.

3 distinct HVNs in this balance area. 2018 to 2022 HVN is going to be key to break for bulls today. Overnight hit the LVN at 2030 zone I expect this to get tested if 2020 zone broken. A rejection is likely to bring in responsive sellers and as of late we might expect some strong selling and new lows.

Market is currently opening with a gap up into a minor LVN area.

Hypo 1: Responsive selling to close the gap (also a MCLVN) then buyers to step back in and drive price up and through overnight high. Despite the news there appears to be short term buying power. Targeting LVNs and HVNs on the way up. 2040 is not out of bounds for today.

Hypo 2: Same as 1 but responsive sellers take price down to 2005 zone before buyers step back in. This scenario leads me to think a more balanced choppy session.

Hypo 3: Open drive by initiative and responsive sellers. Ultimately looking for 1950 and although unlikely today, this type of open will probably persuade me to hold shorts into close (small pos).


Really not expecting a small range given elevated volatility. Most probably going to wait a little and see if a direction is chosen.

Rape and Pillage 1-14-2015

Wow, yesterday was a lot of fun if one were nimble. Market did not tap 1995 which I was looking for but overnight pretty much got there. Today should be pretty interesting. $JPM failed earnings estimates. Chatter about general banking sector having poorer earnings ~BUT~ despite the elevated volatility price hasn't really tanked much by close. Saying that there is selling pressure as I'm writing and taking scalp short.

Looking at the profile only chart one can see the key areas over the last few days and how they lined up with price action specifically 2022 and 2015 VPOCs. If we don't sell off then price is likely to be attracted to these zones (balance).

As one can see price has been well contained within HVNs 2060 - 1980. A thinner part of the composite profile. The following zoomed in profiles should help show some key levels.

2029.75 LVN appears to be a line in the sand for this recent balance zone with 2015 to 2022 being the HVN zone of the lower distribution and 2048 ish being the upper part.

Zooming out to view the entire balance area of the past few months also reveals some more key levels.

This view shows that key 2060 MCVPOC that has been written about over the past few weeks. A price that has been rejected with some rather strong responsive sellers showing up.

Here is a zoomed out profile only chart showing some levels to look at to the downside. 1984.75, 1979.50, 1973.50, 1965 and 1952.50 appear to be reasonable levels to target to the downside, which is mostly what I am looking at for the near future. Levels to the upside have been blogged the last few weeks and the trade is likely to be choppy/violent swings, as we saw yesterday.

So, with those levels in mind onto some hypothesis'.

Market is likely to open at the lower range of yesterday, at least overnight VPOC is there but price trading lower as of 5am PST. Key will be watching for responsive buyers or initiative sellers.


Hypo 1: Market opens roughly where it is and responsive buyers step in driving price back towards overnight VPOC where price is likely to go higher but chop around between the extremes of yesterdays lower distribution 2020 to 2000 ish (2019.50 - 1996.25 being overnight high/low). I'll be taking scalp like trades in this scenario with no (little) campaigning around core position and staying nimble.

Hypo 2: Same as Hypo 1 to begin but with failure towards overnight VPOC zone and responsive sellers stepping in and driving price down. IMO this will likely be a strong move towards 1950s (other levels in between of course). If I notice driving behaviour then will add to short/campaign around main short position.

Hypo 3: Same as Hypo 1 but price starts to break out above 2020. Given the last few days everyone likely to be real wary of this one but if driving behaviour shows up then plan is to jump on and ride it 'till it stops along with campaigning around the core position.

Monday meh 1-12-2015

Long ass weekend spent coding and sleeping. Still feel a bit groggy so if my brain seems to be in tune with the market great if not then likely just looking for small scalps here and there off of the typical levels/intraday support/resistance.

With the increase in volatility I'll be looking for range extensions until market shows otherwise (~12 points being a typical range on a typical day though not lately).

Overnight the market pushed higher on buzz about takeovers (apparently). Generally stocks are also up biotechs seem strong as has been the case for a while now. Seeing some news about Ukraine ending the truce etc... this could affect things. France have deployed army and police to Jewish schools in lieu of terrorist threats. Europe not applying any more sanctions to Russia (yet). Crude still looking weak and looking for more lows on this product, interesting to see how the market reacts. Seeing chatter about how the market is unsure whether low oil prices are good or bad.

Crude

S&P Mini

I really expected a sell off overnight. The action on Friday was very bearish imo. Lovely bullish push to that magical 2060 zone (MCVPOC) and then complete and utter rejection and strong selling. Also was an outside day, a bearish sign I think. Instead the market pushed up to 2048 prior VPOC and is holding the area (MCHVN) so basically not what I expected at all.

On the composite it looks like the market is stuck between 2 HVNs 2029 and 2060. In balance on a higher time frame.

Trade ideas:

For a push higher ideally would like to see a test/reject lower. 2041 to 2035 is the bulk of Friday's profile and whilst it is a large zone to be looking for a reaction, it is also likely to be choppy. Saying that, a failure of 2041 is likely to lead to a test of 2038 then 2035 and could be a decent short term scalpy trade (but choppy). A rejection of this area imo is likely to lead to a push towards 2060 and 2065.50. Areas to look out for a reaction are 2053 zone. If the 2053 zone holds then the day is likely to be balanced and should be traded outside in.

If we push through Friday's bulk then a gap close is in the cards. With the selling pressure lately it'll probably happen quickly. My key target to the downside is 2018 NVPOC. Areas of interest/possible reactions are 2028.75 2023.75 and 2020

A little about context

For myself context is such an important aspect of trading. One of my favourite trades is an open out of range (OOR), responsive activity causing a (partial) gap close and subsequent failure to gain acceptance into prior range.

Under this scenario the only way to go is the other way, or balance (not frequently). It also gives an obvious cue for when to gtfo due to being wrong (your risk), gives us the potential of a larger than normal move in our favour (price seeking behaviour/possible trend day) often implying double the typical range or more, allows us to possibly enter with more size and/or trade around a core position and really helps to filter the noise.

You can double/triple your potential profit on these types of days IF you allow your brain to recognize and accept what is happening.

Once one has a little experience (and it doesn't take much tbh) in determining good levels of support/resistance (SR) then applying some sort of context becomes a very powerful way of helping your brain accept and trade what is really happening vs what you want to happen.

Context + Trading Plan + Trading Rules = Success over Time;

Practice determining context on larger and smaller time frames is likely to lead to more controlled trading/less impulsive clicks. I know it does for me.

Trade ideas 1-7-2015

In a bit of a rush so no images.

Yesterday played out similar to the other days. The exception being the strong buying coming in on the lows. Opening in range in a toothy profile.

Most of the levels from the last few days are remaining the same. 2003 to 2004 is the overnight LVN and imo a decent area to be tested on a push lower.

Hypo 1: Responsive selling back towards yesterday's VPOC and buyers step back in to drive price towards 2029 area. Yesterday's high will be a decent scale area as well the predefined scales I use (0.10c and 0.20c typically on options).

Hypo 2: Chop, Yesterday's VPOC still a place to trade but also a couple of areas below that might be tested. Ideally we stay within yesterday's range which helps to define risk for me. Will be very cautious in this scenario as chop is not normally my best trading setup.

Hypo 3: Lower. Not expecting this. Probably will trade this as hypo 2 and bring in yesterday's levels into play if the lows break. Wary of being short at the moment.

Hypo 4: Open drive up. Jump on it and keep an eye on volume delta and breadth to confirm a trend day.

Le plan du Jour - 1-6-2015

Yesterday played out as my primary hypothesis with the extended range although it was a few points shy of my final target(s) of 2008/2005 (see HVN and trend line). A lot of ground was covered and the gap filled from that huge blast off Mid December.

I think we are now at a fairly key level. That doesn't mean we won't go lower to test, however, if bulls are going to keep this going then we might expect at minimum a bounce play. Recent history suggests BTFD so with that in mind I'll be looking for balancing behaviour and/or a push higher without forgetting that the world probably turned pretty bearish for the short term.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a break into the prior balance between 1963 and 2010 zone. There are some interesting levels that could be tested, and further testing people's nerves and the market sure has a way of thoroughly doing that.

With rates going lower and the US stock market being one of the better (for lack of words) markets out there I believe there are still new highs to be made. Big picture is still bullish until proven otherwise. Global news isn't exactly thrillingly bullish of late so again, must keep that in mind.

Bottoming pattern signs I'm going to be looking for:

• Key test into prior balance zone and rejection
• Reduced volume
• Reduced range
• Choppy market/quick seemingly random moves

Overnight seems fairly balanced but the profile suggests a weak top, difficult to tell if it's valid though (for me that is). Volume delta is flat. VPOC higher than yesterday but within range for me to consider the same. No lower low overnight, yesterday was different unsure if it will have much if any impact though. Just noting it.

On to some trade ideas.

Range trade: I'll be looking to play this as my most likely hypothesis. Breaking overnight hi with passion will have me looking at the extended targets given in the bounce trade. 

The bounce trade: For me to take this I want to see a test below and buyers stepping up (and price moving up). I would really like to see 2006 zone get tested and nicely rejected. This will allow me to have more confidence in a long. Will have to be cautious because I think it might try to shake out people before a move higher. Key target to the upside is the HVN at 2028, within range for a typical day. Overnight high is at a level I'm also interested and a scale point. IMO could easily drive up quickly.

Open Drive: Always hard to get on board but with smaller size... Same targets apply, however, I will look to add to the trade if action stays up.

Test higher and reject: Essentially what has been happening for the last few days. I'll be carefully watching my levels/price action for rejection. This hypo won't come into effect until 2006 zone is broken.

Feeling fairly neutral to very slightly bearish. There is some macro news (#grexit etc) that could and will likely cause some larger moves such as we saw yesterday.

*If an open drive to the upside happens I will look for a couple of equity longs.

Day Review 1-5-2015

Turns out Monday was a replay. Small test higher and then strong selling until value is found. Similar profile shapes over the last few days. Notable to me is the complete failure to push back into Friday's range.

I shorted fairly quickly and took a partial but held on longer to scale out at some of the predefined levels. I'm quite happy with myself for trusting my plan and knowing where I would exit if the sentiment changed, this level of comfort really helps to hold runners for further targets and worked well today. I felt the entire time that I could have gone in a little heavier, however, the goal right now is to keep it small, tight, instill correct habits and (most importantly?) log the errors. Nothing quite as embarrassing as typing your fuck ups online.

To the fucked up part. I was stalking a long once price closed the gap as I'm sure many other traders were. Unfortunately I hesitated too much and made more of an impulsive entry as opposed to waiting for a pull back and got stopped out - twice. Took a little more heat than I should have which is of course a no no at this stage. Typically in the past I was ok giving something a little more room and even adding if there had been a large move and I was expecting a reversal. This of course caused me to shaft myself on more than one occasion and my profitable trades didn't outweigh the losing ones. I still believe that it is a viable setup but I most certainly need to do more work on how I will enter and how much risk I should take to allow me to capture an appropriate amount of gain. For now I will reduce my size by 33%, take a scale at 0.10c and hold for whatever further target(s) I have for that day.

I was also stopped out of most of the remainder swing longs I had on ($YELP, $BIDU).

End of the day was very slightly down when the swing longs were taken into account. Bit of a bummer but knowing how bad shit can get when one isn't on the ball I'm perfectly ok with the (few hundred bucks) draw down. Removing either error trades to the long side would have made it an ok day, reinforcing that it is so critical to have a plan ready with at least some basic rules to protect yourself. Just plain lousy prep work and awful execution. I can live with it providing I make less as time goes on.

Another thing I want to note is anxiety levels. For most of the day it was close to zero. The usual anxiety/anticipation on entering and those few minutes that determine one's scale then nothing. I believe this was due to having spent time working out reasonable and likely targets before the market opened. The only other time it came on was during the long (error) trades.

Using a smaller position size is also essential (imo) to begin holding for larger moves.

First Monday

General News and Economic calendar for the week ahead.

Last market hypo.

$ES_F fairly stagnant overnight. Broke Friday's VPOC by 1 tick and fell off leaving a somewhat balanced profile but also making a lower low. I'm think weak to neutral for overnight. Delta is also flat leading me to think that peeps are waiting to see. As I'm writing I am noticing more negative delta and weakness.

Here is a profile only chart (courtesy of ft71. Saying that, most of my charts are derivatives of his).

On Friday the market pushed down further than I thought it would. Looking at the profile only chart shows that there are prior HVNs in the area. I still wouldn't have predicted the price it got to though,

My primary hypothesis is going to be similar to friday's but with a more bearish stance short term.

If we open out of value in range or even out of range one should expect to see some responsive buying and look for something to test above. My main area of interest is to see what happens if price manages to push into range and test the close, VPOC and overnight hi. If it breaches this zone then 2054/2055 is my next expected test as these prices were rejected on Friday's push towards the end of the day. Above 2055 I think 2060 is likely to be hit and a large balance area up here. If this happens one should expect choppy action and no trades until price breaks, however, will also be watching for signs of rejection. I think I'm feeling bearish today! Must make a note of that so as not to get stampeded if it rips up.

*To note: As I'm writing this seeing more downgrade news than I have for the past few weeks or so. Also $CL_F breaking lower*

If we do break lower then I am targeting 2033.75 NVPOC, 2029 HVN, 2019 minor HVN and roughly 50% gap fill and then 2008/2005 gap fill/VAH of the volume in that lower balance. Not expecting all of that to happen today but given the action lately it isn't off the table either.

I am not planning to take any longs except for maybe a few scalps if price shows it is heading towards 2060. I will take a long on positive action above 2060 with an initial target of 2063.50 and further targets of 2065.50, 2067.75 and 2073.75. This trade is maybe choppy given prior volume in this area.

If we end up with a balanced day, which may happen then I'll be looking to trade outside in based upon my levels. Most likely just small scalps as I'm not particularly good in a tight range bound environment.

Note there are extra levels in here that are minor areas where there might be a reaction

Crude Review

The monthly chart is unhappy but approaching some longer term potential support levels which may coincide with what might be a big flush candle on the monthly. For the time being, however, I think a bearish outlook until proven otherwise. If this does prove to be bottoming in the near future we should expect to see violent moves testing balance extremes, wherever that may be. Keep in mind it is still one time framing down so caution/no longs for the moment.

Using the monthly as guidelines I thought it would be interesting to see what VPOC levels there were around this prior zone giving some more defined levels to watch for bottoming or continuation. Whatever does happen I'm fairly confident that there will be some sort of balance attempted in these zones before anything else and might be a place to consider selling weekly options.

On to the daily and what one might expect for Monday.

There was a mini sell off on the open but not really expecting much other than possibly some responsive buying in an attempt to move back into balance. I'll likely be watching the Euro open to get a feel of what might pan out throughout the night. Ideally there is continuation lower towards the predefined levels but it's crude so the odd rip here and there is to be expected. All I need to see to remain short is price failing to get back into value above and sellers stepping in. I'm ultimately aiming for a $45 price in the near future. I'm wrong when price can maintain above $55. This is obviously not a day trade, however, any failing with a passion and I will be looking to add to $USO put runners. Any major flushing will have me exit 80% of the puts and await further information.

Evolution of a trader

http://newtraderu.com/2012/07/02/40-steps-in-the-traders-journey/

Day 1 recap and thoughts

Well the selling did continue which I was prepared for but not my primary hypothesis. I did, however, stick to my plan and shorted $SPY via puts once price failed to push above prior LVN/range. As I was expecting a smaller range day I scaled out of the puts rather quickly but allowing the runners to run to my predefined targets. I ended up re-shorting for the second push/flush as I believed the market looked weak at that time. Very happy with the execution of the shorts, my scaling and holding for my targets although I probably should have been less conservative with my scales once I could see that a move was happening.

Being a great trader requires one to follow a preset plan without deviating. At least that is what is said by the pros, sort of like a pilot does during preflight, roll out, take off etc... Lots of checklists and procedure to go through that after a while just becomes habit.

I mention this for three reasons.

1. A reminder to myself that my goal is to make my plan a pure habit
2. To reinforce the uselessness of impulsive clicking
3. To scold myself for the fuck up I'm about to explain

I bottom fished, and added to it. This is something I have done previously and said I would avoid doing. Big fucking strike against myself for this one because frankly it is just not professional and 99% of the time is an impulsive reaction. I'm sure the time will come when doing it won't be impulsive but a deeply ingrained habit based upon years of experience but we're not there yet.

Fortunately I did scale out and didn't get hit too hard on the remainder but I know from prior experience how fatal this can be to one's capital. The fact that I added though is unacceptable even though it allowed me to exit with less of a loss. Yes, I timed the add but failed to execute properly. Should probably make a plan for that once I have more experience but a no no for the foreseeable future.

A couple of my long swings also got stopped out. Not really surprised but probably should have been a little more aggressive about exiting prior to my stops being hit given the type of day that was panning out. I'm going to be taking far fewer equity swing trades going forward. They often tend to distract me from day trading and add an additional level of stress.

Down a little today, less than max loss. Not awful considering I had swings stopped out but would have been a slightly profitable day had I not been impulsive with the add to the long instead of taking the stop. Greed and fear bitches.

Obviously going forward I need to manage myself extremely well in terms of gtfo of a trade that is counter trend and failing, or simply not take them. Unsure of the correct approach to proceed with as counter trend trades can often rip in your direction very quickly and a trade that gets scales is less stressful and less likely to messed with.

Stuff to ponder over this weekend and add to my trading plan.

New Year Bullshit

$SPY $ES_F


LOL what a last day of the year that was. I think everyone got a little butt hurt by that move.

The profile left at the end of 2014 shows no real accepted value, blew past 2060 by 10 points which was my target on the downside. With this volatility have been using small size and trying to capture larger moves with my runner(s).

As one can see the VPOC for this entire move from October lows is 2060 and became a magnet once price broke the upper range.

If the selling continues then 2029 HVN could be in the cards along with a major gap closing opportunity. The gap zone down there is very thinly traded so price is likely to blast through quickly in which case imo the next likely test will be the HVN at 2008.50.

Today I am expecting a test higher and a test lower for a fairly range bound day. 2068 is my test above level. It breaks and I will start to target 2072.25, 2076.50 and 2079.25 imo key areas of upper balance.

If we break lower then I'll be targeting 2045.75, 2043.25, 2038.252034 and 2029 (gap right below with more targets if it tries to close).

Essentially going to wait for something to be tested and trade based upon the reaction.