Rape and Pillage 1-14-2015

Wow, yesterday was a lot of fun if one were nimble. Market did not tap 1995 which I was looking for but overnight pretty much got there. Today should be pretty interesting. $JPM failed earnings estimates. Chatter about general banking sector having poorer earnings ~BUT~ despite the elevated volatility price hasn't really tanked much by close. Saying that there is selling pressure as I'm writing and taking scalp short.

Looking at the profile only chart one can see the key areas over the last few days and how they lined up with price action specifically 2022 and 2015 VPOCs. If we don't sell off then price is likely to be attracted to these zones (balance).

As one can see price has been well contained within HVNs 2060 - 1980. A thinner part of the composite profile. The following zoomed in profiles should help show some key levels.

2029.75 LVN appears to be a line in the sand for this recent balance zone with 2015 to 2022 being the HVN zone of the lower distribution and 2048 ish being the upper part.

Zooming out to view the entire balance area of the past few months also reveals some more key levels.

This view shows that key 2060 MCVPOC that has been written about over the past few weeks. A price that has been rejected with some rather strong responsive sellers showing up.

Here is a zoomed out profile only chart showing some levels to look at to the downside. 1984.75, 1979.50, 1973.50, 1965 and 1952.50 appear to be reasonable levels to target to the downside, which is mostly what I am looking at for the near future. Levels to the upside have been blogged the last few weeks and the trade is likely to be choppy/violent swings, as we saw yesterday.

So, with those levels in mind onto some hypothesis'.

Market is likely to open at the lower range of yesterday, at least overnight VPOC is there but price trading lower as of 5am PST. Key will be watching for responsive buyers or initiative sellers.


Hypo 1: Market opens roughly where it is and responsive buyers step in driving price back towards overnight VPOC where price is likely to go higher but chop around between the extremes of yesterdays lower distribution 2020 to 2000 ish (2019.50 - 1996.25 being overnight high/low). I'll be taking scalp like trades in this scenario with no (little) campaigning around core position and staying nimble.

Hypo 2: Same as Hypo 1 to begin but with failure towards overnight VPOC zone and responsive sellers stepping in and driving price down. IMO this will likely be a strong move towards 1950s (other levels in between of course). If I notice driving behaviour then will add to short/campaign around main short position.

Hypo 3: Same as Hypo 1 but price starts to break out above 2020. Given the last few days everyone likely to be real wary of this one but if driving behaviour shows up then plan is to jump on and ride it 'till it stops along with campaigning around the core position.