Thursday, January 15, 2015

Swiss Cheese Thursday 1-15-2015

Swiss Franc boom.
Market Boom.

Yesterday was great, until I fished for the bottom and got chop suey. I know not to do it but meh wtf. Emotions are critical. Doing the right thing is critical and the right thing is often to stfu and wait patiently.

Anyways...

Volatile overnight due to Swiss Franc shenanigans and now we're green and gaping open after a 40 handle drop from overnight highs.
In a rush so some charts and numbers.




3 distinct HVNs in this balance area. 2018 to 2022 HVN is going to be key to break for bulls today. Overnight hit the LVN at 2030 zone I expect this to get tested if 2020 zone broken. A rejection is likely to bring in responsive sellers and as of late we might expect some strong selling and new lows.

Market is currently opening with a gap up into a minor LVN area.

Hypo 1: Responsive selling to close the gap (also a MCLVN) then buyers to step back in and drive price up and through overnight high. Despite the news there appears to be short term buying power. Targeting LVNs and HVNs on the way up. 2040 is not out of bounds for today.

Hypo 2: Same as 1 but responsive sellers take price down to 2005 zone before buyers step back in. This scenario leads me to think a more balanced choppy session.

Hypo 3: Open drive by initiative and responsive sellers. Ultimately looking for 1950 and although unlikely today, this type of open will probably persuade me to hold shorts into close (small pos).


Really not expecting a small range given elevated volatility. Most probably going to wait a little and see if a direction is chosen.

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