First Monday

General News and Economic calendar for the week ahead.

Last market hypo.

$ES_F fairly stagnant overnight. Broke Friday's VPOC by 1 tick and fell off leaving a somewhat balanced profile but also making a lower low. I'm think weak to neutral for overnight. Delta is also flat leading me to think that peeps are waiting to see. As I'm writing I am noticing more negative delta and weakness.

Here is a profile only chart (courtesy of ft71. Saying that, most of my charts are derivatives of his).

On Friday the market pushed down further than I thought it would. Looking at the profile only chart shows that there are prior HVNs in the area. I still wouldn't have predicted the price it got to though,

My primary hypothesis is going to be similar to friday's but with a more bearish stance short term.

If we open out of value in range or even out of range one should expect to see some responsive buying and look for something to test above. My main area of interest is to see what happens if price manages to push into range and test the close, VPOC and overnight hi. If it breaches this zone then 2054/2055 is my next expected test as these prices were rejected on Friday's push towards the end of the day. Above 2055 I think 2060 is likely to be hit and a large balance area up here. If this happens one should expect choppy action and no trades until price breaks, however, will also be watching for signs of rejection. I think I'm feeling bearish today! Must make a note of that so as not to get stampeded if it rips up.

*To note: As I'm writing this seeing more downgrade news than I have for the past few weeks or so. Also $CL_F breaking lower*

If we do break lower then I am targeting 2033.75 NVPOC, 2029 HVN, 2019 minor HVN and roughly 50% gap fill and then 2008/2005 gap fill/VAH of the volume in that lower balance. Not expecting all of that to happen today but given the action lately it isn't off the table either.

I am not planning to take any longs except for maybe a few scalps if price shows it is heading towards 2060. I will take a long on positive action above 2060 with an initial target of 2063.50 and further targets of 2065.50, 2067.75 and 2073.75. This trade is maybe choppy given prior volume in this area.

If we end up with a balanced day, which may happen then I'll be looking to trade outside in based upon my levels. Most likely just small scalps as I'm not particularly good in a tight range bound environment.

Note there are extra levels in here that are minor areas where there might be a reaction