Crude Review

The monthly chart is unhappy but approaching some longer term potential support levels which may coincide with what might be a big flush candle on the monthly. For the time being, however, I think a bearish outlook until proven otherwise. If this does prove to be bottoming in the near future we should expect to see violent moves testing balance extremes, wherever that may be. Keep in mind it is still one time framing down so caution/no longs for the moment.

Using the monthly as guidelines I thought it would be interesting to see what VPOC levels there were around this prior zone giving some more defined levels to watch for bottoming or continuation. Whatever does happen I'm fairly confident that there will be some sort of balance attempted in these zones before anything else and might be a place to consider selling weekly options.

On to the daily and what one might expect for Monday.

There was a mini sell off on the open but not really expecting much other than possibly some responsive buying in an attempt to move back into balance. I'll likely be watching the Euro open to get a feel of what might pan out throughout the night. Ideally there is continuation lower towards the predefined levels but it's crude so the odd rip here and there is to be expected. All I need to see to remain short is price failing to get back into value above and sellers stepping in. I'm ultimately aiming for a $45 price in the near future. I'm wrong when price can maintain above $55. This is obviously not a day trade, however, any failing with a passion and I will be looking to add to $USO put runners. Any major flushing will have me exit 80% of the puts and await further information.