Monday meh 1-12-2015

Long ass weekend spent coding and sleeping. Still feel a bit groggy so if my brain seems to be in tune with the market great if not then likely just looking for small scalps here and there off of the typical levels/intraday support/resistance.

With the increase in volatility I'll be looking for range extensions until market shows otherwise (~12 points being a typical range on a typical day though not lately).

Overnight the market pushed higher on buzz about takeovers (apparently). Generally stocks are also up biotechs seem strong as has been the case for a while now. Seeing some news about Ukraine ending the truce etc... this could affect things. France have deployed army and police to Jewish schools in lieu of terrorist threats. Europe not applying any more sanctions to Russia (yet). Crude still looking weak and looking for more lows on this product, interesting to see how the market reacts. Seeing chatter about how the market is unsure whether low oil prices are good or bad.

Crude

S&P Mini

I really expected a sell off overnight. The action on Friday was very bearish imo. Lovely bullish push to that magical 2060 zone (MCVPOC) and then complete and utter rejection and strong selling. Also was an outside day, a bearish sign I think. Instead the market pushed up to 2048 prior VPOC and is holding the area (MCHVN) so basically not what I expected at all.

On the composite it looks like the market is stuck between 2 HVNs 2029 and 2060. In balance on a higher time frame.

Trade ideas:

For a push higher ideally would like to see a test/reject lower. 2041 to 2035 is the bulk of Friday's profile and whilst it is a large zone to be looking for a reaction, it is also likely to be choppy. Saying that, a failure of 2041 is likely to lead to a test of 2038 then 2035 and could be a decent short term scalpy trade (but choppy). A rejection of this area imo is likely to lead to a push towards 2060 and 2065.50. Areas to look out for a reaction are 2053 zone. If the 2053 zone holds then the day is likely to be balanced and should be traded outside in.

If we push through Friday's bulk then a gap close is in the cards. With the selling pressure lately it'll probably happen quickly. My key target to the downside is 2018 NVPOC. Areas of interest/possible reactions are 2028.75 2023.75 and 2020